Las Cabañuelas

Cabañuelas is a traditional method of long-term weather prediction without a scientific basis used in Latin America and in central and southern Spain.

The prediction is based on indicators such as cloud shapes, wind direction, characteristics of the Sun, Moon, stars, fog, morning dew, rainbows or hail, to name a few. The behavior of animals is also used as a rain forecast; Thus we have the appearance of winged ants, the mules flapping their ears, the pigeons bathing, the cat washing its face, the rooster crowing during the day (possible change of weather), or cats running and jumping (wind sign). .

Not all regions use the same days to make the forecast.

In Spain, and in our region, observation and recording of the weather during the first 24 days of August of each year are used to predict what weather will be enjoyed in the next twelve months, with the first twelve days being forecasts of the months in ascending numerical order (1=August; 2=September, etc.) and the second twelve days forecasts the months in descending numerical order (13=July; 14=June; etc.), these last days being known as the returned ones, as follows:

Although forecasts are sometimes accurate, from a scientific point of view, cabañuelas are meaningless when it comes to obtaining predictions about the weather, for the following reasons:

A correct prediction cannot be made by observing only the weather in a specific place, since the weather does not evolve independently in some places from others, but, for example, a storm formed thousands of kilometers away can reach the place analyzed. and change a sunny day into a hail storm in no time. Since the atmosphere is a chaotic system, small changes in remote places can end up having very large effects on local meteorology.

The preset days for measurements are totally arbitrary. The common belief that the Moon (and therefore the liturgical calendar) is related to meteorology has no basis, since the influence of the moon on the atmosphere is negligible. As much as the Moon affects marine tides, atmospheric tides are minimal.

The persistence of the belief in the effectiveness of cabañuelas is due, therefore:

To tradition and other cultural reasons, such as the need that all cultures have had to predict the weather.

To the lack of precision in predictions. Regardless of what the weather ultimately turns out to be, they can hardly be considered to have “failed.”

Because predictions are generally long enough in time that the general public will have forgotten them by the time the prediction period has actually passed.

Thus, the official meteorological centers do not use either the cabañuelas or the temporas to support their predictions.